Prior to this upcoming race, Georgia has seen 11 runoffs between a Democrat and a Republican for statewide office since the late 1960s, and the runoff margin was better for Republicans than the general election margin in seven of them. Historically, runoffs elections in the Peach State have favored Republicans. ( Current returns show 1 Warnock at 49.2 percent of the vote and Walker at 48.7 percent. Neither Walker nor Warnock have exceeded the 50 percent threshold this cycle due to the presence of a third-party candidate on the ticket, Libertarian Chase Oliver. The reason we’re back here in the first place, though, is because Georgia law requires that candidates receive a majority of the vote to win an election. If Georgia is the deciding seat, parties will likely throw everything they have at the Georgia runoff, even with Walker’s obvious warts as a candidate. With a Democratic win in the Pennsylvania Senate race last night, that means Democrats need to hold on to two of their three competitive seats - Arizona, Nevada and/or Georgia - in order to reach 50 seats and maintain their majority in the chamber. Arizona, meanwhile, tilts slightly toward Democrats currently. Returns give Republicans an edge as of now in both Alaska and Nevada. As of now, the Senate will include 48 Democrats and 48 Republicans, with three other as-yet-unprojected Senate races in Alaska, Arizona and Nevada. 6 may in part hinge on whether control of the Senate hangs in balance. In short, the eventual outcome of Warnock and Republican Herschel Walker’s runoff on Dec. ![]() This time, though, things may be a bit different since the balance of the Senate may not depend on Georgia in the same way it did last year. ![]() Raphael Warnock is headed to a runoff in a Georgia Senate race, less than two years after his fight against former Sen. Not all Senate runoffs are created equal. ![]() PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY FIVETHIRTYEIGHT / GETTY IMAGES
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